1. Don't let a tough matchup make you risk a winning combination--I started Rex Grossman because I had a feeling he would "go off"in week 2. He didn't. I risked by benching the reliable but unspectacular Matt Hasselbeck in hopes that Grossman would respond to the criticism by doing something spectacular even though I had very little evidence he would do so besides a three star ranking on Yahoo matchups. Sporting News gave him only one star. My rationale was that if I lost, it probably wouldn't be due to one choice out of fourteen players. I lost by one tenth of a point. Had I stuck with the lineup I had used the week before--including Hasselbeck--I would have won by seven points.
I remember making the same mistake for the first time in 1999 when I started Trent Dilfer in week one because several experts guaranteed that this would be the year that Dilfer would finally pull it all together and have a breakout season. My girlfriend at the time (wife now) told me to start the extremely reliable but unspectacular Troy Aikman.
Dilfer was Dilfer. Aikman threw a career high 5 TD's against a highly rated Redskin D.
What bothers me most about the Grossman choice is that I didn't use all of my personal knowledge to make my decision. Because my wife is a Gator, I have seen almost every game Florida has played on national T.V. since 1996 including, I believe, the very first time Rex walked on the field. He came on throwing darts and taking chances and ended up either leading the team to a comeback or coming very close. The problem is he was the very same QB then that he is now. He has never shown any interest in doing anything besides his own frenetic version of what he believes Brett Favre does. It was reported that in his final year at Florida that he would change plays in the huddle from what new coach, Ron Zook, called to the old plays from former coach, Steve Spurrier's playbook. I watched him in a press conference last year state that he played the way he played and he had no intention of changing that. He just needed to be more accurate. Since then, after every bad performance, he has restated the same sentiment over and over. Defensive coodinators have eaten him alive.
It is very possible Rex Grossman may someday be come a viable fantasy QB. Dilfer became a reliable backup by recognizing his weaknesses and then relying on the strengths of the players around him. But it is a big mistake for the fantasy player to attempt to anticipate it.
2. Early in the season, go with the guys you drafted to be starters--I drafted Braylon Edwards to be my second receiver. This is in a dynasty league where you draft every round opposite of where you finished the season prior. I finished third and drafted eighth every round. I also had the option of keeping players that had been on my team the year before if they cleared our seven round draft. One of the players I was most excited about keeping was Brandon Marshall, who I believe will be a borderline #1 receiver by the middle of next season and a solid #2 within a few more weeks. I started Marshall at home. He got a respectable 70 yards. Braylon Edwads go 140 + yds. and 2 touchdowns.
The moral is that if you draft a player to be a starter, start him for at least the first four games. Trends begin to surface after the first quarter of the season. Before that time you're just taking wild second guesses. I'm almost certain that Marshall will end up being a better fantasy receiver than Edwards. But he isn't yet.
I remember making the same mistake for the first time in 1999 when I started Trent Dilfer in week one because several experts guaranteed that this would be the year that Dilfer would finally pull it all together and have a breakout season. My girlfriend at the time (wife now) told me to start the extremely reliable but unspectacular Troy Aikman.
Dilfer was Dilfer. Aikman threw a career high 5 TD's against a highly rated Redskin D.
What bothers me most about the Grossman choice is that I didn't use all of my personal knowledge to make my decision. Because my wife is a Gator, I have seen almost every game Florida has played on national T.V. since 1996 including, I believe, the very first time Rex walked on the field. He came on throwing darts and taking chances and ended up either leading the team to a comeback or coming very close. The problem is he was the very same QB then that he is now. He has never shown any interest in doing anything besides his own frenetic version of what he believes Brett Favre does. It was reported that in his final year at Florida that he would change plays in the huddle from what new coach, Ron Zook, called to the old plays from former coach, Steve Spurrier's playbook. I watched him in a press conference last year state that he played the way he played and he had no intention of changing that. He just needed to be more accurate. Since then, after every bad performance, he has restated the same sentiment over and over. Defensive coodinators have eaten him alive.
It is very possible Rex Grossman may someday be come a viable fantasy QB. Dilfer became a reliable backup by recognizing his weaknesses and then relying on the strengths of the players around him. But it is a big mistake for the fantasy player to attempt to anticipate it.
2. Early in the season, go with the guys you drafted to be starters--I drafted Braylon Edwards to be my second receiver. This is in a dynasty league where you draft every round opposite of where you finished the season prior. I finished third and drafted eighth every round. I also had the option of keeping players that had been on my team the year before if they cleared our seven round draft. One of the players I was most excited about keeping was Brandon Marshall, who I believe will be a borderline #1 receiver by the middle of next season and a solid #2 within a few more weeks. I started Marshall at home. He got a respectable 70 yards. Braylon Edwads go 140 + yds. and 2 touchdowns.
The moral is that if you draft a player to be a starter, start him for at least the first four games. Trends begin to surface after the first quarter of the season. Before that time you're just taking wild second guesses. I'm almost certain that Marshall will end up being a better fantasy receiver than Edwards. But he isn't yet.
1 comment:
At one point in my fantasy career, I came up with the following mission statement, which I still try to adhere to:
If I am going to lose, it will not be because I out-thought myself. My standard operating procedure will be minimalist.
I will value:
• production over potential;
• the veteran over the newbie;
• the steady hand over the hot hand;
• experience over youth;
• average over matchups;
• long-term trend over the short-term trend;
• The probable over the questionable;
• Yards over touchdowns.
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